UFC 264 Conor Mcgregor vs Dustin Poirier betting guide. Here you will get a strategic analysis of how to bet on this massive pay-per-view event.

Dustin Poirier (-125) vs Conor McGregor (+105)

Dustin Poirier declined the title shot and accepted the rematch against Conor McGregor right away. This speaks to the confidence Dustin Poirier has entering the trilogy fight.

Conor McGregor as an underdog is very tempting. I can not think of the last time you had a chance to bet on Conor McGregor at plus money. Find myself rooting for McGregor the closer we get to UFC 264. McGregor’s winning brings unmatched attention to the UFC.

However, in March I said Dustin by KO round 2. Now, it’s fight week and I still stand by that statement. Not round 2 but definitely by KO again. Dustin by KO/TKO is +180 which sounds like a fantastic bet. Dustin Poirier will finish Conor McGregor again, and then get his title shot. Which could lead to the Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz awaited trilogy.

My Pick: Dustin Poirier

Gilbert Burns (+135) vs Stephen Thompson (-155)

Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is one hell of a Co-main event. Might as well throw some gas on the fire and place some money on the line.

Stephen Thompson is a tough opponent to prepare for due to his unique karate style. Thompson is a very smart fighter, he takes his time and does not sell out looking for the knockout. Plus his takedown defense is extremely underrated.

When Gilbert Burns gets frustrated he tends to rush in and gas himself out. Wonderboy is a difficult opponent for Burns and an unfavorable match up. I Love Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson here, could be a sneaky hammer bet.

My Pick: Stephen Thompson

Tai Tuivasa (-130) vs Greg Hardy (+110)

Have you ever had a life changing experience that causes you to question everything you know? The oddsmakers seem to make me question life at every other UFC event. Or maybe it is just me being a Greg Hardy hater.

Greg Hardy is an unbelievable athlete, just not a fighter. As soon as he gets to the ground it’s like watching a fish out of water. Plus he does not have the cardio to last all three rounds. When facing Greg Hardy the first round is a bull rush. Once you get into the second and third rounds it’s basically over.

Greg Hardy has also fought one southpaw in his career and Tai Tuivasa is a southpaw. Tai’s improvement over his last two fights has been very impressive. Plus the dude is a savage who loves to rip shoey’s, Tuivasa is one of the easiest bets of all time. Hammer Tai by knockout at +165.

My Pick: Tai Tuivasa

Sean O’Malley (-750) vs Kris Moutinho (+525)

Have you ever seen the It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia episode when Charlie makes an extremely elaborate map to find Pepe Silvia? Basically how I feel right now trying to articulate my thoughts for Sean O’Malley vs Kris Moutinho.

Sean O’Malley is an unbelievable striker. He switches his stance and throws different combinations giving his opponents unorthodox looks. Which becomes a difficult puzzle to solve for his opponents. Especially in Kris Moutinho’s case where he only had 10 days to prepare. However, Moutinho’s coach is Tyson Chartier which is a huge benefit in this fight. Tyson Chartier is also a coach to another bantamweight, Rob Font. My guess is Tyson has studied O’Malley’s film way beforehand to have full knowledge of the bantamweight division.

Now let’s put all this together. This is Sean O’Malley’s fight to lose. With that being said no way you can justify straight betting O’Malley. If you like O’Malley, take him by KO/TKO at -250. Still not great odds but better than a straight bet. Kris Moutinho is 2-2 in his last 4 fights, those two losses coming by KO/TKO.

Moutinho has Tyson Chartier in his corner which gives me some hope. Kris by KO/TKO is +1200. Sean O’Malley clearly still has ankle issues, having the brains of Tyson could help Kris expose that weakness. If you want a risky play with a tremendous about of upside, Kris Moutinho by KO is the bet.

Told you try to articulate Sean O’Malley vs Kris Moutinho would be a maze. Lets recap. The fight will not go the distance and they are both primarily strikers. The bet by KO/TKO is the only one to make on either Sean or Kris. A scenario where you place the large wager on O’Malley by KO but hedge it with a smaller bet of Kris Mouinho by KO. A win-win, did I just break Vegas?

My Pick: Sean O’Malley or Kris Mouinho by KO/TKO

Ryan Hall (+190) vs Ilia Topuria (-235)

Sometimes the oddsmakers do a great job and make my job a little easier. Ryan Hall vs. Ilia Topuria is one of those fights where the odds basically speak for themselves. Ilia is just so talented and well-rounded in all aspects of the game.

However, that is not to count Ryan Hall out by any means. Ryan Hall by submission at +500 is an interesting play. Ryan Hall is known for heel hooking. A move you just do not attempt in BJJ out of respect, it’s an unwritten rule. Ryan Hall just doesn’t care about the unwritten rule and loves going for heel hooks. If you are interested in betting on Hall by submission is the only way.

Besides all that, Ilia Topuria is the better bet, definitely fits in as a parlay piece. Ilia is a Brazilian jujitsu black belt himself, could see him looking to punish Ryan Hall for breaking the holy unwritten rule.

My Pick: Ilia Topuria

UFC 246 Poirier vs. McGregor 3 odds and best bets.

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