UFC 281 is a stacked card. We are still debating making the trip out to New York to see this lineup in person. Let me know if any of you guys are going. Covered three main card fights resulting in 5 bets total. Let’s dive into UFC 281 Adesanya vs Pereira.
Israel Adesanya (-180) vs. Alex Pereira (+155)
I rewatched Adesanya vs Pereira’s first kickboxing match in order to prepare for this breakdown and UFC 281. Adesanya was robbed blind, if you thought the UFC judging was bad, get a load of these kickboxing judges. No idea how they scored any round for Pereira. The full fight is below.
It’s also remarkable how much Adesanya’s style has matured since this bout in 2016. Pereira is an unbelievable striker with boatloads of potential. However, he’s only fought 7 total mixed martial arts fights and he’s already fighting Adesanya. Could this be too much too soon for the newcomer?
The only real contender Pereira has fought thus far has been Bruno Silva. Whereas Adesanya has been fighting the best of the best in the Middleweight division for years.
Pereira could start out hot in the first and second rounds, which could cause a massive shift in the live lines. I see this as a great opportunity to capitalize and live bet Adesanya. I’m rolling with Izzy in the main event. His overall MMA experience is going to play a huge factor once we get into the championship rounds.
Bet: Israel Adesanya (-180)
Carla Esparza (+295) vs. Weili Zhang (-360)
Don’t always advise betting on women’s fights unless there is a crystal clear lock. Weili Zhang is that lock. Esparza vs Namajunas 2 was 25 minutes of agonizing pain, would have rather gotten a root canal.
Can’t wait for Zhang to knock Esparza out cold. Hammering Weili Zhang to win by KO/TKO at (+125). One, because we deserve an Esparza knockout after the last performance, and two because the value is pretty good. Not much of a breakdown for the UFC 281 co-main event, more of a Carla Esparza bashing. As an MMA community, it’s fair to say we are all on the same page, Zhang to the moon.
Bets: Weili Zhang (-360)
Weili Zhang by KO/TKO (+125)
Dan Hooker (-175) vs. Claudio Puelles (+150)
Zero reasons that Dan Hooker would lose against Claudio Puelles. Hooker has been on a tough skid in the UFC, but he’s gone against some of the best. Take no offense when I say Claudio Puelles might be one of the lowest levels of talent Dan Hooker has fought.
Puelles is a submission specialist with poor takedowns. If Hooker just uses his 3.5-inch reach advantage to stay on the outside and pick Puelles apart for three rounds he’ll be fine. I don’t see Puelles posing a real threat to Hooker in any department.
Come back season for The Hangman! If you want a bump in the odds I’d even look to take Hooker by KO/TKO at (+225). We are going to see a prime Dan Hooker performance on Saturday, feeling a second-round finish.
Bets: Dan Hooker (-175)
Dan Hooker by KO/TKO (+225)
Promo code: Delinquent15