UFC heads to Sao Paulo Brazil this Saturday for a Fight Night event headlined by heavyweights Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis.

The prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and the main card kicks off at 10 p.m.

Almeida (-500) is a heavy favorite over Lewis (+350). A $100 bet on Almeida’s -500 odds (83.33% implied chance) pays out $20. The same $100 on Lewis at +350 (20.83% implied chance) pays out $350.

Caio Borralho (-265) vs. Abus Magomedov (+215)

Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov should be the co-main event. Instead, they are the third fight on the main card. Even though Borralho is a big favorite, the odds are generous.

We last saw Magomedov get finished in the second round by Sean Strickland. Now, he is stepping in on four weeks’ notice to replace Nursulton Ruziboev.

Magomedov starts off strong, then starts to fade. Quick and easy breakdown for this one, Borralho by finish rounds 2-3 is the bet here.

Bet: Caio Borralho

Rodolfo Vieira (-110) vs. Armen Petrosyan (-110)

Rodolfo Vieira and Armen Petrosyan rightfully deserve to be a pick-em-fight. It all comes down to one factor. Will Petrosyan’s takedown defense hold up against Vieira?

If Vieira gets this fight to the ground, it is very likely over. You are essentially betting on if you believe Petrosyan improved his takedown defense. His one loss in the UFC came to Caio Borralho, who took him down four times and controlled him for 10 minutes.

Vieira’s last loss came against Chris Curtis, where he went 0-20 in takedown attempts. In a perfect world, Petrosyan would copy Curtis’s strategy. Play the first round cautious, pick your strikes, and look to tire Vieira out by stuffing the takedowns.

Should Petrosyan follow that gameplan, he will win this fight. Let’s roll the dice on a pick-em-fight, Petrosyan by decision.

Armen Petrosyan