UFC 309 Betting Guide: Jones vs. Miocic Odds, Predictions & Picks

Delinquent MMA presents the UFC 309 Betting Guide for Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic, find the latest Odds, Predictions and Fight Picks for 309.

The UFC heavyweight title will be on the line on Nov. 16 at Madison Square Garden in New York when champion Jon Jones, takes on Stipe Miocic in a legendary main event. The greatest light heavyweight in the UFC’s history against the greatest heavyweight in the sport’s history.

Jones vs. Miocic has been a top priority for the UFC for over a year. The legendary encounter was planned for UFC 295 at New York’s Madison Square Garden in November 2023. Jones pulled out of the fight due to a torn pec.

UFC 309 Picks

According to the UFC 309 odds, Jon Jones is a massive favorite at -650 (bet $650to win $100). Meanwhile, Stipe Miocic is in the underdog spot at +470 (bet $100 to win $470). The implied probability is a 87.10% win likelihood for the GOAT, Jon “Bones” Jones.

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Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

When the odds were released for the UFC 309, Jones opened as a -410 favorite and Miocic a +320 underdog. As you’d imagine, those odds have drastically changed making Jones a massive favorite. DraftKings currently lists Jones -650 and Miocic +470.

The main event for UFC 309 gives off vibes similar to those of UFC Vegas 100 with Carlos Prates last week. We obviously can’t bet Jon Jones’s money line straight up. The best bet to place would be to take Jones to win inside the distance. However, since the entire prop board for UFC 309 is not out, we have no idea what that price will be.

In no reasonable dimension would you bet on Stipe. With Andrei Arlovski no longer in The UFC, Stipe Miocic hasn’t fought a single fighter on the current roster. All of Stipe’s highlights are in the old Reebok fight kit. The Reebok UFC deal ended in April of 2021. Everything is lining up terribly for the 42-year-old firefighter.

Without knowing any of the official prop lines, the bets to place would be under 2.5 rounds and Jones wins inside the distance. I have no idea if the actual over-under is truly 2.5 rounds.

Bet: Jon Jones / Under 2.5 Rounds / Jones ITD

Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler

Charles Oliveira is currently a -260 favorite over Michael Chandler. Chandler is a +210 underdog in the UFC 309 Co-Main event.

The two initially fought back in 2021 at UFC 262, where Chandler was a +105 underdog, and Oliveira was a -135 favorite. To this day, many fans believe the referee should have stopped the fight in the first round. Which would have made Chandler the Vacant Lightweight Champion. However, Oliveira got saved by the bell and went on to KO Chandler in the opening seconds of the second round.

Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler brought the intensity in their first fight 👊🔥

Who will win in their rematch at #UFC309? 👀 pic.twitter.com/T4fAAhtGPX
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) November 10, 2024

A lot has changed since 2021. Oliveira went on to defend the lightweight title against Dustin Poirier and fought four additional times. Whereas Chandler fought three times and waited around for Conor McGregor since 2022. I honestly feel bad for Chandler, seeing he’s 38 years old and wasted two years sitting around waiting.

Due to the age difference and inactivity from Chandler. The picks for the UFC 309 Co-Main event will be to take Charles Oliveira to win inside the distance. There is no way this fight is going 25 minutes. I’d be shocked to see this fight enter the third round.