UFC 275 jumps into the conversation for the card of the year! An okay gambling performance last week, 2-1 on picks but missed on both prop bets. Mediocre performance at best. Waves rise and crash, just important you keep riding.
On to UFC Fight Night Austin, Calvin Kattar vs Josh Emmett is loaded from top to bottom. If you follow me on Twitter, you already know how this betting guide is going to go down. Might be playing favorites here.
Side note, if you are going to the Jon Jones watch party in Boston hit me up!
Calvin Kattar (-235) vs. Josh Emmett (+190)
Made the foolish mistake of not including Calvin Kattar in the Kattar vs Giga Chikadze Betting Guide. Shame on me, won’t be fooled again!
Granted all bias aside, there is some decent value in Josh Emmett. He is extremely powerful and could end the fight in one punch. Emmett has dealt with a handful of injuries over the years which caused him to take long layoffs. It might not seem like it, but Josh Emmett is 37 years old.
On the other hand, Kattar is the fresher, younger fighter (Excluding the year off he took from the Holloway fight). He bounced back from that year off better than ever. Calvin Kattar shocked the world when he dominated Giga. A big win over Josh Emmett could put Kattar right back into title contention.
New England Cartel over everyone.
Bet: Calvin Kattar (-235)
Adrian Yanez (-350) vs. Tony Kelley (+270)
Calvin Katter and Adrian Yanez on the same card? Fire me up! Yes, we are hammering Adrian Yanez. It’s truly beautiful that the first time Yanez gets to fight in front of fans, it’s in his home state.
All four of Yanez’s UFC fights have been in the Apex. Now he gets to put on a show in front of his fellow Texians. Already know this stadium is going to be bumping when Yanez walks out. Should be on the main card.
Didn’t talk at all about the match-up against Tony Kelley but do I need to? Kelley has a record of 2-1 in the UFC. One of the guys he beat is not even on the roster anymore and the other is Randy Costa who Yanez smoked.
Dropping a whale on my boy Adrian Yanez here! Seeing Yanez win by KO/TKO is (+150), which is some great value on the knockout prop.
Bet: Adrian Yanez (-350)
Phil Hawes (-260) vs. Deron Winn (+210)
I’ve written the breakdown of Hawes vs Winn before. My opinion stands the same, therefore I have copied and pasted the same breakdown.
Phil Hawes has been on fire since he debuted in the contender series in 2020. Now he opens as a 3-1 favorite against Deron Winn. Winn is a stud wrestler with 64 freestyle wins under his belt. However, we are not betting on a wrestling match.
Hawes is the more well-rounded mixed martial artist. His most recent win was against, Kyle Daukaus provided that. If you watched UFC Vegas 38’s card you saw Hawes’s full skill set in effect. Now he takes a slight step back to face a one-dimensional wrestler.
Should be an easy pick, unfortunately, the betting odds on Phil Hawes aren’t great.
Since writing that, Hawes did go on to lose again Chris Curtis but I truly believe he is going to learn from that loss and come back stronger than ever. Hawes by knockout could be a great play.
Bet: Phill Hawes (-260)
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