Absolutely piss poor betting performance on UFC 279. Just one of those off nights, I couldn’t even get my predictions correct. Figured I should start keeping track of my units to see how well each betting guide does. Currently at a 64.14% win rate since starting in 2020.
Back to the Apex we go for UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs Song. Entertaining card, but only confident in two bets this week.
Tanner Boser (-165) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (+140)
Tanner Boser vs Rodrigo Nascimento was originally scheduled to take place in April. Nascimento had to withdraw for an undisclosed reason. Now the fight is scheduled to take place on Saturday and my bet from April is staying the same.
Love Tanner Boser here, honestly surprised he is not more than a -200 favorite. Boser has fought the best of the best in the heavyweight division. He went 3 rounds with Ciryl Gane back in 2019. Whereas Nascimento is fairly new to the UFC after signing from the contender series in 2019.
To sweeten the line I’d look to take Tanner Boser by finish, those lines are unfortunately not out just yet. For the sake of this betting guide, I’m taking Boser straight up.
Bet: Tanner Boser (-165) 1 unit
Tony Gravely (+135) vs. Javid Basharat (-155)
Javid Basharat came up through Dana Whites Contender Series, not to be confused with his brother Farid, who just earned himself a contract last night as well. In March, we hit on Javid in his UFC debut against Trevin Jones. Backing the same horse once again.
Tony Gravely has fought 6 times thus far in the UFC but all against green opponents. Most of them had one or two fights in the UFC or are currently off the roster. The most notable name Gravely fought was Brett Johns who currently fights for Bellator.
Gravely was an NCAA Division 1 wrestler back in the day. However, Basharat is lethal from the ground. 12-0 professional record and 6 of those wins coming by way of submission. Not worried if Gravely looks to panic wrestle Basharat.
Besides his ground game, Basharat is a dynamic striker. His combinations are so crisp and precise. Plus the way he flows when switching stances is remarkable. Time for the Basharat brothers to make a splash.
Bet: Javid Basharat (-155) 2 units
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