The UFC Tampa Covington vs. Buckley takes place on December 14 from Amalie Arena in Tampa Florida and is the final fight card on the UFC schedule for 2024. The main event is a welterweight matchup between former interim champion Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley. Below we will discuss how to bet on UFC Tampa: Covington vs. Buckley.

Colby Covington (17-4) enters the UFC Tampa fight card as the No. 6 fighter in the UFC welterweight rankings. The 36-year-old claimed the interim UFC welterweight belt in June 2018 with a decision win over Rafael dos Anjos.

Joaquin Buckley (20-6) is the No. 9 fighter in the UFC’s 170-pound weight class. The 30-year-old Buckley is on a 5 fight win streak since dropping to welterweight in 2023.

UFC Tampa Betting Strategy

According to the UFC Tampa odds, Joaquin Buckley is a heavy favorite at -270 (bet $270 to win $100). Meanwhile, Colby Covington is in the underdog spot at +207 (bet $100 to win $207). The implied probability is a 72.97% win likelihood for the Buckley.

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Joaquin Buckley vs. Colby Covington

Joaquin Buckley is a heavy favorite at -270 against former intern champion Colby Covington, a +207 underdog.

Covington is stepping in to replace Ian Machado Garry, who filled in for Belal Muhammad last week at UFC 310. Given Covington’s most recent performance against Leon Edwards, taking any fight on short notice seems like a flawed idea. The last time we saw Covington fight, he looked like a shell of himself. Slow, old, and washed up.

Meanwhile, Joaquin Buckley is in his prime and on a rampage at welterweight. Currently riding a five-fight win streak, three wins coming via knockout. Stylistically, Buckley matches up very well against grapplers. Buckley’s strong takedown defense should be enough to null Covington’s early pressure.

Plus, Covington does not pose any knockout threat on the feet. He seems to be entering UFC Tampa down on the scorecards.

Once Buckley survives Covington’s initial burst, he will run circles around him. If Covington can’t take Buckley down, he will end up being a punching bag for 25 minutes. Buckley is too explosive and powerful, look to bet on Joaquin Buckley by KO/TKO.

Pick: Joaquin Buckley, Joaquin Buckley by KO/TKO

Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo

In the co-main event, Billy Quarantillo opens as a -155 favorite against UFC veteran Cub Swanson, who sits as a +135 underdog.

The Tampa native, Billy Quarantillo (18-6), gets to co-headline a UFC event in front of his hometown. Cub Swanson (29-14) is 41 years old and at the tail end of his mixed martial arts career.

The lines would make more sense if we had a prime Cub Swanson. However, Quarantillo will hold a clear power advantage over the 41-year-old in the UFC Tampa co-main event. Plus, Quarantillo throws strikes in much higher volume. He averages 2.69 more significant striker per minute that Swanson.

Billy Q seems like the easy call here. If he mixes in his wrestling early, he should be able to pull off a unanimous decision victory over Swanson.

Pick: Billy Quarantillo

UFC Tampa Fight Card: How to Watch

UFC Tampa takes place on Saturday, December 14 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. The main card starts at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2 following prelims at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+.

UFC Tampa Info

Event: UFC Tampa: “Covington vs. Buckley”
Date: Sat., Dec. 14, 2024
Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida
Broadcast: ESPN2, ESPN+
Start Time: 7 p.m. ET Prelims Card | 10 p.m. ET Main Card

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