UFC 310 Betting Guide: Breakdowns and Predictions

UFC 310 Pantoja vs Asakura breakdowns and predictions will be the final pay-per-view Betting Guide of 2024. After this event, there is one last Fight Night to close out 2024.

UFC 310 is headlined by Alexandre Pantoja, who will aim to defend his crown against UFC newcomer Kai Asakura.

Alexandre Pantoja (28-5) is on a six-fight winning streak heading into UFC 310. The 34-year-old Brazilian won the UFC flyweight title in July 2023. Pantoja secured the 125-pound title with a split-decision win over Brandon Moreno. Since that victory, Pantoja has defended his title twice, beating Brandon Royval in December and Steve Erceg in May.

Kai Asakura (21-4) signed with the UFC in June. Asakura is a two-time RIZIN Bantamweight champion. If you want to learn more about Kai Asakura, click this link for an entire post dedicated to his highlights and backstory.

The co-main event will feature Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry. Rakhmonov was scheduled to fight Belal Muhammad for the UFC welterweight title. However, Muhammad withdrew due to injury. Dana White has confirmed that the victor of the co-main event will fight Muhammad for the welterweight belt next.

UFC 310 Breakdowns & Predictions

According to the UFC 310 odds, Alexandre Pantoja is a heavy favorite at -250 (bet $250 to win $100). Meanwhile, Kai Asakura is in the underdog spot at +205 (bet $100 to win $205). The implied probability is a 71.43% win likelihood for the Pantoja.

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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura

Alexandre Pantoja is a heavy -250 favorite against former RIZIN Bantamweight champion Kai Asakura, a +205 underdog.

Asakura primarily fought at Bantamweight in RIZIN. He’s only fought at flyweight six times, with his last flyweight appearance in 2017, which will serve him with a prominent size and reach advantage. Asakura is a calculated striker who throws everything with vicious intent. However, it’s important to note, that RIZIN operates under an entirely different rule set. Grounded strikes like soccer kicks and knees to the head are legal. A core part of Asakura’s game revolved around these grounded strikes.

Pantoja’s primary training partner, Kyoji Horiguchi fought Asakura twice in RIZIN. In the first fight in 2019, Asakura knocked out Horiguchi in round one. For the second fight in 2020, Horiguchi knocked out Asakura in round one. Pantoja’s head coach has already studied Asakura’s game and fighting style for years. This should provide Pantoja a massive advantage in his training camp and fight preparation.

As a result, Pantoja seems to be the “safer” bet in the UFC 310 main event. He’s a complete fighter with an established coach who has proven he can implement a game plan to defeat Asakura.

If you are a value chaser, Asakura by KO/TKO could be a great pick. Asakura’s notable size advantage could pose a serious problem to Pantoja.

Bet: Alexandre Pantoja

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry

Shavkat Rakhmonov is a massive -380 favorite against former training partner Ian Machado Garry, a +300 underdog.

Two highly talented undefeated welterweight prospects square off in the UFC 310 co-main event. Props to Garry for stepping up on short notice to fight Rakhmonov. Granted, Garry was already in fight camp preparing for Joaquin Buckley on Dec. 14th.

Garry (15-0) is a durable volume striker. We saw his grappling on display for the first time against Michael “Venom” Page at UFC 303. On the flip side, Rakhmonov (18-0) is a well-rounded, deadly finisher.

Rakhmonov is the more powerful striker in this fight. However, Garry is crafty. He has a high fight IQ and tends to keep himself out of danger. Rakhmonov’s approach could be similar to the Geoff Neal fight. Pressure and overwhelm Garry for a few rounds, once he starts to fade, go in for the kill.

The UFC 310 Co-Main event is 5 rounds. 25 minutes way too long to be locked up in the octagon with Shavkat Rakhmonov. Bet on Rakhmonov winning inside the distance or by submission.

Bet: Shavkat Rakhmonov

Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling

Movsar Evloev is a sizable -280 favorite against former Bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling, a +210 underdog.

Statistically and stylistically, Evloev and Sterling are relatively identical. There doesn’t seem to be any underlining factor that would give Evloev a 74% implied win probability.

Evloev vs. Sterling will be primarily contested on the ground, as they are two highly skilled grapplers. Expect a fight where these two look to prove who the better group wizard is.

Sterling is pound for pound one of the best grapplers in the UFC. He is a former champ who should be able to hold his own against Evloev. As a result, the 2-1 value of Aljo is too good to pass up.