UFC 291, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje will square off in Salt Lake City, Utah for the vacant BMF title.
Dustin Poirier (-150) vs. Justin Gaethje (+130)
Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje first fought in April of 2018. At the time, it was Gaethje’s third UFC appearance. After rewatching their first outing, it’s apparent that Poirier possesses a clear power advantage. However, Gaethje did have Dustin hurt a few times in the second and third rounds.
After handicapping this main event, I wouldn’t be surprised if the line shifted to a pick ’em on Saturday. While the opportunity presents itself, you should place a bet on Justin Gaethje.
Gaethje has gained a substantial amount of UFC experience since the two first fought. Plus, Gaethje’s lower-leg kicks gave Poirier some serious trouble last time. Gaethje by KO/TKO (+225) is the best place for your money.
Bet: Justin Gaethje
Tony Ferguson (+270) vs. Bobby Green (-350)
It break’s my heart to see Tony Ferguson go out like this. The guy has been on murders row for his past five fights. The UFC should have given Ferguson a tune-up fight to get back on track, not Bobby Green.
Over his past five losses, Ferguson has looked good in the first round. However, once the second round begins, he tends to fade. Not confident in Bobby Green finishing this fight. But if he does, it will come by a late-round KO/TKO.
I will be betting on Bobby Green, but a good value play to consider would be Tony Ferguson round 1 finish (+1500).
Bet: Bobby Green
Stephen Thompson (-170) vs. Michel Pereira (+145)
I anticipated Thompson’s line to jump to (-245), not to come down from the opening mark of (-195). The only area you could justify Michel Pereira being better at would be athleticism. Other than that, Wonderboy has him beaten everywhere.
Thompson has a higher fight IQ, the cardio to go five rounds, and a better striking style and output. Plus Wonderboy has a significant experience advantage with his strength of schedule.
The line is too generous. Thompson is going to sit back and pick Pereira apart for three rounds. Get this bet in while you can.
Bet: Stephen Thompson