Check out the betting guide for UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera 2 of Saturday’s PPV event. Featuring a rematch of Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera. The Betting Guide provides you with the best bets for UFC 299.

UFC 299 features a rematch of Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera for the Bantamweight Championship. Additionally, Dustin Poirier takes on rising prospect Benoit Saint-Denis in a 5 round co-main event.

UFC Vegas 87 Recap: Only had one bet last week, which was a max unit play on Steve Erceg (-300) that cashed in. Over on BETMMA, I went 3-1 on straight bets and hit two solid parlays. Delinquent MMA is hot at the right time!

UFC 299 Best Bets

According to the UFC 299 odds board, Sean O’Malley is currently the favorite at -245 (bet $245 to win $100). While Marlon Vera is in the underdog spot at +200 (bet $100 to win $200). This implies a 70.15% win probability for Sean O’Malley.

Dustin Poirier (+160) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (-175)

If you are to take away one point of information from this betting guide, have it be this. Recency bias is a legitimate factor that plays into gambling lines. In no world should Dustin Poirier be an underdog against Benoit Saint-Denis.

I imagine the oddsmakers did some quick “MMA Math” on their last fights, where Poirier lost by a head kick, and Saint-Denis won by a head kick. Based on that equation, they made Saint-Denis the favorite. Sprinkle in BSD being ex-special forces certainly adds to it.

Dustin Poirier has been in the top 5 of the Lightweight division since 2018. He’s been in the UFC since 2013 and has fought some of the best in the world. St. Denis has been training MMA for six years. His first professional fight was in 2019.

The strengths of their schedules are not comparable. St. Denis recently cracked into the rankings by beating Matt Frevola, who ranked number 11 at the time. Also, BSD has only seen the third round once in his UFC career. Now, he’s locked in the cage with Dustin Poirier for 25 minutes.

Even though all of St. Denis’s victories are by finish, he is not a one-shot knockout fighter. He’s constantly in your face searching for takedowns. So, Poirier spent his entire training camp with Mateusz Gamrot, a fighter whose style is similar, if not better than St. Denis’s.

The Co-Main event for UFC 299 is five rounds. If it’s not already obvious, the bet here is Dustin Poirier. Bet on Poirier to win inside the distance for even more value.

Bet: Dustin Poirier

Gilbert Burns (+130) vs Jack Della Maddalena (-160)

Gilbert Burns opened as a (-125) favorite against Jack Della Maddalena. Over the past 12 days, the line has flipped in favor of JDM. Which absolutely blows. We had a chance to bet on JDM with plus money, but the opportunity just slipped out of our fingers.

Stylistically, this is a horrible fight for Burns. Della Maddalena is going to demolish him. Burn struggles to defend the jab. As soon as JDM gets his boxing going, it will be lights out. Burns is not durable enough to hang with a power puncher like JDM.

Plus, JDM has all the momentum in the world. He’s won his last six fights in the UFC. On the other hand, Burns is 37 years old and he looked horrible against Belal Muhammad.

Once JDM establishes his range, he will overwhelm and finish Burns.

Bet on Della Maddalena’s KO prop at (+165). Then, if you’d like to value chase even more, take JDM round 1 (+400). Let’s win some big money!

Bet: Jack Della Maddalena

Flying out for UFC 299 on Thursday. If you are a Delinquent attending the fight, hit me up on Twitter. I accept beer as payment for gambling advice.