Explore the ultimate UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad Betting Guide for expert insights and predictions. Get strategic tips and odds analysis to make informed bets on this thrilling MMA showdown.
The UFC returns to Manchester, England for the first time since 2016. The U.K.’s largest indoor arena, Co-op Live, will host UFC 304 on July 27 as its first-ever sporting event. With two championship bouts between English champions looking to defend their titles.
The main event features a welterweight championship fight between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad, who clashed in 2021. The co-main event showcases a heavyweight interim title bout between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes, who battled in 2022.
UFC 304 consists of a 14-fight event, starting with early prelims at 6 p.m. ET, followed by prelims at 8 p.m. ET. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and pay-per-view.
UFC 304 Betting Strategy
According to the UFC 304 odds board, Leon Edwards is the favorite at -210 (bet $210 to win $100). While Belal Muhammad is in the underdog spot at +180 (bet $100 to win $180). The implied probability is a 67.74% win likelihood for Edwards.
Leon Edwards (-210) vs. Belal Muhammad (+180)
Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad squared off in March of 2021. The fight only lasted one full round due to an unintentional eye poke that stopped the fight 18 seconds into the second round. Nevertheless, Edwards dominated the entire first round.
Since 2021, Belal Muhammad vastly improved. He’s adjusted his training regimens and started working with Khabib Nurmagomedov. This helped Muhammad pull together a five-fight winning streak, which ultimately led to his title shot.
Despite that, Leon Edwards is in another stratosphere right now. He is levels above Muhammad. The five minutes of tape from their first fight instilled enough confidence to bet on Leon Edwards in the UFC 304 main event. There are no prop bets here, we have plenty of value on Edwards’s line.
Bet: Leon Edwards
Tom Aspinall (-350) vs. Curtis Blaydes (+285)
When Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes fought for the first time in July of 2022, the odds makers had the match up as a pick ’em. Then Aspinall moved to a slight favorite. The fact that Aspinall is now a (-350) favorite is ridiculous and unplayable.
For the rematch against Blaydes, Aspinall originally opened as a (-198) favorite. The public went nuclear on his line. My theory is that no one paid any attention to last week’s Apex Fight Night and began preparing for UFC 304.
In any event, you need to play prop bets in the UFC 304 Co-Main event. The best bet will be under 1.5 rounds (-160). However, I know everyone wants to know what side to play, either Aspinall or Blaydes.
I advised betting on Tom Aspinall the first time and the strategy will remain the same. Blaydes has been violently knocked out multiple times throughout his career. Tommy Aspinall hits like a Ford F150 and will put him to sleep with one punch. The injury stoppage in their first match was a fluke accident.
Bet on Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO (-115) to bring yourself more value.
Bet: Tom Aspinall / Under 1.5 rounds
Muhammad Mokaev (-120) vs. Manel Kape (+100)
It’s slightly unsettling that Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape got bumped to the early prelims. Perhaps Dana White knows Kape might pull out at any second. Mokaev believes the match-up got moved because the UFC does not like his fighting style. Regardless of what happens, Mokaev vs. Kape is a phenomenal scrap.
Mokaev is a grappler. We have barely seen him strike. He averages 1.53 significant strikes landed per minute and 5.75 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. Kape is the polar opposite. Primarily a powerful striker who avoids grappling. The game plan for each is crystal clear.
If Mokaev gets the fight to the ground, he wins. If Kape keeps the fight standing, he wins. The odds makers nailed this line because it’s a coin flip.
One X factor has significant weight in the Mokaev vs. Kape prediction. Manel Kape can not stay healthy and consistent. Since 2020, Kape has had nine canceled fights, three directly caused by him. All that mental preparation can take a serious toll on a man. Combine that with him having to wake up and fight in the middle of the night. I’ll take my chances on Mokaev.
Bet: Muhammad Mokaev
Mick Parkin (-200) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+170)
UFC 304 is about maximizing the opportunities to make the most money in the least likely places. The odd board for UFC 304 is quite ludicrous. I’ve linked the odds here. Consequently, Mick Parkin found himself in this week’s Betting Guide.
Lukasz Brzeski is not a UFC caliber fighter. He straight-up blows, and Brzeski will get cut once he loses against Parkin. Brzeski is 1-3 in the UFC, his only win is against Johnny Walker’s brother, who also stinks.
To date, Parkin racked up a record of 3-0 in the UFC. He’s not a flashy highlight reel heavyweight, but his fight IQ is off the charts. Parkin doesn’t make mistakes and keeps himself out of danger to prioritize winning. Mick Parkin’s line is too good to pass up. He makes for a nice little parlay piece.
Bet: Mick Parkin
UFC Vegas 94 Recap: Jun Yong Park withdrew from his fight against Brad Travers. As a result, the betting guide only consisted of one bet, Miranda Maverick. Maverick was the easiest bet of all time.
If you want premium bets, consider subscribing on Bet MMA. For UFC 304 betting, there are currently four parlays and six prop bets posted. More bets will get posted as we get closer to the event.
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