Each and every ounce of UFC 281 lived up to our wildest expectations plus some. Unreal night, a great betting night too, but now Uncle Dana forces another bland fight night down our throats. Some of the prelims are better than the fights on the main card.
Before looking at the odds, I write down which fights I plan to advise betting on. I didn’t realize JDM was going to be a crazy favorite. Now I look like a complete jackass informing you to bet on a (-500) favorite. Oh well, here is the Lewis vs Spivak Betting Guide.
Derrick Lewis (+165) vs. Sergey Spivak (-195)
Sergey Spivak is a well-rounded heavyweight, he’s been in previous betting guides, and I’m sure you are well-informed. However, it would be very uncharacteristic of me to advise betting against Derrick Lewis when you can get double the value on his knockout prop.
Out of Spivak’s three total losses two of them have come by way of knockout. His most recent Knockout loss came two fights ago against Tommy Aspinall. Lewis is on a little bit of a skid, but he’s never fully out of a fight. All we need is one good punch and our 2-1 ticket cashes in. Give me The Black Beast by Knockout!
Bets: Derrick Lewis (+165)
Lewis wins by TKO/KO (+215)
Jack Della Maddalena (-490) vs. Danny Roberts (+390)
Told you, here we are breaking down 5-1 favorite Jack Della Maddalena. Crazy, did not believe JDM was going to be this big of a favorite going into a fight against Danny Roberts. It kind of flies under the radar but Roberts has been with the UFC since 2015. Granted most of Roberts’s opponents are no longer in the UFC.
Let’s talk about how we are going to work on Della Maddalena’s line. The goal was to get JDM by knockout at plus money, but currently, the line is almost 2-1 favorite. Here is what we do, Jack Della Maddalena by first round finish (+130). Combine that with JDM by knockout too and you’ll be sitting pretty. Fellas, that’s how you get value out of a -500 favorite.
Bets: Jack Della Maddalena (-490)
Maddalena wins by TKO/KO (-175)
Maddalena wins in round 1 (+130)
(224-126-6)
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