The UFC returns to ABC for a Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida.
UFC 288 kicked my ass, specifically Gilbert Burns. Seeing Belal Muhammad limp around all week created a false sense of confidence. It’s a tragedy that Burns muffed up his left shoulder in the first 45 seconds of the fight. Which made the remaining 24 minutes and 15 seconds torturous. Basically equivalent to slowly roasting on an open flame. Resulting in my personal largest amount of units lost to date.
Combat sports are unmatched because we get to relive those feelings week after week.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+430) vs. Jailton Almeida (-560)
A clear-cut main event break down. Two paths, either Jairzinho Rozenstruik catches Jailton Almeida and knocks him out. Or Almeida takes Rozenstruik down and submits him in 20 seconds. The underdogs have been on fire in 2023, so if you’re a value chaser might as well play Rozenstruik by KO to juice your odds.
However, I bought a first-class ticket to the Almeida hype train. Almeida is demolishing everyone in the heavyweight division. Including his contender’s win, he’s finished three opponents in the first round and two in the second. Once Almeida gets a hold of Rozenstruik, the fight is as good as over. Rozenstruik does not possess a strong enough takedown or clinch defense to break away from a high-level grappler.
Certainly, Rozenstruik is not the guy to derail this hype train. Following simple MMA math my brain is saying to bet on Almeida by finish in round 2.
Bet: Jailton Almeida
Daniel Rodriguez (+240) vs. Ian Garry (-285)
Ian Garry should not be a 3-1 favorite against Daniel Rodriguez. Truly shows you how much the hype factor can move the line. Historically, Garry tends to carry his chin up high, leaving him vulnerable. He’s been dropped multiple times in the UFC thus far. The last time Garry fought, Kenan Song dropped him with a left hook in the first round.
Rodriguez is a phenomenal striker. Easily one of the most technically sound boxers in the UFC. Making him a massive underdog is disrespectful, but let’s take full advantage of this. Bet on Daniel Rodriguez all day long.
Cody Stamann (-125) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (+105)
Cody Stamann has been flirting with the top 15 for years now. He has always been so close. Recently the 33-year-old seems to found his groove again, rattling off back-to-back wins.
Douglas Silva de Andrade is a savvy kickboxing veteran. Silva de Andrade is 37 now, making his game fairly limited. He sits back and throws everything into counter punches. Stamann is a very well rounded fighter. I’d give him the advantage in boxing and wrestling. Comparing striking output, Stamann is the busier fighter, averaging more landed strikes per minute than Silva de Andrade.
Stamann possesses more tools to win this fight. As a result, Stamann should be able to pull off this victory if he stays the busier fighter.
Bet: Cody Stamann